Most of the traders know as well as seen - when the guru's expert fund managers start to discuss regarding any stock or index - markets always go against their direction - not once not twice it has been happening repeatedly until the present day. And now hot topic or new hype is of "300 points swing in nifty" ... So what is she going to do this time? - Repeat the same ??
If the answer is yes, then I have some points, which has to be considered.
All technical patters theories logic studies will only work accurately when applied to proper cycle. When the pendulum of emotion swings too far in one direction - market mood always reverts to the mean. Despite gurus and experts view's , Opinions or direction misfire, How are they making it to the mark and traders yet believe in them ??
Is it-like people are gregarious ??
In my opinion, based on study, due diligence and experience since I was 16 & now being 28 - 29yrs - It has been proven and have seen there are times where the gurus will be right ... Their opinions and views may miss fire repeatedly but there are times - they have proven right.
Psychology
As the Gurus been wrong repeatedly mass will lose faith on these experts and starts thinking and some also believe whatever the experts or media say we should do opposite and unfortunately for some traders it may have worked .. Most of us have noticed bull markets or while the markets go up, it is a painful and lengthy process with lots of volatility & fear - frustration - frequent consolidation process - but the bear markets are super fast - it's like bears erase or wipe 3 to six-month gains in 3 to six sessions.... And the current market scenario is a certain cycle where one should change their belief and approach in trading or thinking ....
I always have been insisting on a certain number or target of "6626" since six months-in fact @ 6006, I had warned markets have given a hint that higher high in place, but that will be achieved only after a correction which turned out to be ditto - I expected the bottom @ 5300 - 5245 but markets went a bit lower until 5100 levels from where we bounced back and today nifty made a high of 6300.
Calculation
Day high 6300 + now market hype expecting 300points swing = 6600 squaring my target "6626."
Recently, I happened to come across a headline where an analyst of a Reputable Broking house calling 7000 ++ levels above 6450 or 6500 which I doubt and contradict.
My analysis and strategy planned six months earlier clearly states "6626" is the short term - intermediate target and devil's resistance - today's nifty high 6300 & the 300 points swing hype doing the rounds or heard on the street is also showing signs confirming the target ..
While this is the case I wonder how could they say above 6450 it's 7500? Of course, my target is 6796 - 7062 & 7600 in the long run, but that is only after a healthy or decent correction.
Conclusion
Once markets clear that 6352 mark or 6400 or let's keep above 6500 - 7600 euphoria might pop but do not get carried away with the hype or with your emotions and sentiments looking @ single day 300 point gains and start believing markets are getting stronger, and we go higher.
There are few stocks can say large-cap stocks, which have yet to fill the gap or reach the support and Best Buy level - it cannot go or make a higher high which also tells correction is around the corner else the breakout will be a false pattern, and the bubble can burst anytime this is why I am calling it a Healthy correction. The deeper the correction - more aggressive the reaction - maybe 7600 maybe 8000 or 8200 whatever which I don't have an Idea yet .. But for now, I stick with my plan and initiated levels.
There are few stocks can say large-cap stocks, which have yet to fill the gap or reach the support and Best Buy level - it cannot go or make a higher high which also tells correction is around the corner else the breakout will be a false pattern, and the bubble can burst anytime this is why I am calling it a Healthy correction. The deeper the correction - more aggressive the reaction - maybe 7600 maybe 8000 or 8200 whatever which I don't have an Idea yet .. But for now, I stick with my plan and initiated levels.
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