G20 and BRICs - Who's in Charge?
As the representatives of G20 nations gather in Cannes, thrashing out a new way forward for the ailing European Union's economies, a major yet little observed economic sea change is underway, as the torch is passed from Europe's capitalist systems, forged over the past four centuries, to countries considered until a couple of decades ago "Second" and "Third World - the BRIC nations of Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China.
While it is as yet unclear what form this historic and dynamic shift will ultimately take, investors would be well advised to take notice of this historic economic tectonic shift.
Furthermore, there are indications from Cannes that the BRIC countries are slowly developing a joint agenda, further signaling the G20's primacy as a rich European-American dominated club..On 2 November Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff said that any solutions to European and global economic difficulties need to promote economic growth and employment.
One area where the European Union is certain to be working the sidelines of meeting is to seek loans for the European Central Bank to head off a default by Greece and shore up the economies of the more wobbly EU nations, including Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
Can the BRICs assist?
Certainly, if they choose to. China is now the 800 lb gorilla in terms of foreign reserves, having accumulated an eye-watering $3.2017 trillion as of September.
Brazil is sitting on $350 billion in foreign reserves, the Russian Federation has banked $459.8 billion and India - $320 billion
Brazil is sitting on $350 billion in foreign reserves, the Russian Federation has banked $459.8 billion and India - $320 billion
All told, the BRIC nations are sitting on $4.3316 trillion. Compare that to the current U.S. national debt of $14.97 trillion, which in the next few days will cross the symbolic $15 trillion level, and the magnitude over the BRICs accomplishments besides Washington and Brussels is undeniable.
The question is whether the political will exists in any of the BRIC nations to bail out profligate European and American lifestyles, and here the issue gets tricky.
First and foremost, all four nations will have to conduct a sophisticated public relations campaign to explain to their citizenries as to why the revenues built up by their thrift should be deployed to bail out a Europe largely portrayed as made up of wastrel, self-indulgent nations.'
India? EU-India bilateral trade has soared, more than doubling from $39.4 billion in 2003 to over $93.6 billion last year.
In 2010 Brazilian exports to the EU totalled $ 43.1 billion, an increase of 26.7 percent from 2009 and Brasilia projects a trade surplus of nearly $30 billion this year.
What is clear to those with the foresight to see is that a historical shift in the traditional European-U.S. post-WW2 dominance of the global economy is underway, and that the BRICs will be increasingly prominent in the evolving new economic world order.
Accordingly, astute investors ought to pay increased attention to the economies of the quartet, as, unlike Washington and Brussels, they are flush with cash and none are experiencing the recession currently ravaging much of the rest of the globe.
Accordingly, astute investors ought to pay increased attention to the economies of the quartet, as, unlike Washington and Brussels, they are flush with cash and none are experiencing the recession currently ravaging much of the rest of the globe.
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