US 30 YR T-Bond Futures - Jun 13 (USM3) BUY @ 144 FOR TGT 144.48 - 144.95 , STOPS BELOW 143.50 , LTP - 144.07

$USDCAD $CAD IS A BUY @ 1.0265 FOR TGT 1.0332 - 1.0378 , ADD MORE - STRONG SUPP & STOPS BELOW 1.0180 , LTP - 1.0278 $FOREX #FOREX

HERE WE GO - AGAIN SELL $AUDUSD @ 1.0226 & 1.0256 FOR TGT 1.0180 - 1.0165 - 1.0145 , LTP - 1.0222 $FX STOPS @ 20 PIPS

$US COTTON what's ahead ? $COTTON has violated the support @ 82 & now trading @ 81.74 , crack below 81.65 it's likely to test $80

$EURUSD IS A SELL FOR THE WEEK @ 1.3324 FOR TGT 1.3038/1.2969 , LTP - 1.3278 , TREND : FIRM BEARISH $FOREX $FX #CURRENCY

$EURUSD IS A SELL FOR THE WEEK @ 1.3324 FOR TGT 1.3038/1.2969 , LTP - 1.3278 , TREND : FIRM BEARISH $FOREX $FX #CURRENCY

NYMEX - GOLD - WEEKLY TREND & TRADING LEVELS - 25 FEB 2013

BEST BUY & SUPP @ 1579 ACTUAL RESIS & BEST SELL LEVEL @ 1594.30 A BREAK ABOVE 1609.60 UPSIDE TGT IS @ 1643.10/1658.20 HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW 1563.70 DOWNSIDE TGT IS @ 1530.40/1515.30

LTP - 1591.10

TREND : FIRM BEARISH

STRATEGY : SELL GOLD @ 1594 WITH A STOP ABVE 1612 FOR TGT 1530 - 1516

US Soybeans Futures - Mar 13 (ZSK3) : TREND & TRADING LEVELS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD - 25 FEB 2013

BEST BUY & SUPP FOR THE WEEK @ 1465 (1ST RESIS) ACTUAL RESIS & BEST SELL LEVEL @ 1485 , A BREAK ABOVE 1505 UPSIDE TGT IS @ 1548/1566 , HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW 1435 DOWNSIDE TGT INTACT @ 1403 - 1383

LTP - 1443

TREND - DAILY - WEEKLY : FIRM BEARISH

SELL SOYA @ 1465 & ADD MORE IF GET 1485 FOR TGT 1405/1385

BUY #COPPER #MCX @ 423.50 FOR MOMENTUM TARGET 426.50 , LTP - 423.55 , SL - BELOW 422.15

$GOLD UPDATE : 22 FEB 2013

GOLD MADE A HIGH OF 1586.70 AGAINST GIVEN STOP LOSS 1588 ; & ONCE AGAIN TRADING NEAR THE CRUCIAL LEVEL 1574 A VIOLATION WOULD OPEN THE CHANNEL GATES FOR MULTI MONTH LOW 1469 ! YEA $1469 .

This weeks article - what's ahead for S&P ?

This weeks article - what's ahead for S&P ? What signals are The inverse pattern of crude oil and copper against gold silver indicating ? Are we still in a BULL market ? Is s&p poised for a major breakout towards 1600 - 1800 or it's 1200 ? Is it the bottom and then bounce ? Or is it a top first and then correct ? Read more @ trendtradersonline.com on Saturday.

(STRICTLY) RISK APPETITE TRADER'S CALL - BUY #MCX CRUDE @ 5066 SL - 5052 TGT 5106 , LTP - 5068

MCX CRUDE PROBABLE TRADING PATTERN : 22 FEB 2013

CRUDE MAY FIND SUPPORT @ 5066 & BOUNCE BACK TILL 5111 - 5120 LEVELS - AGAIN ITS A SELL FROM 5120 FOR TGT 4982

LTP - 5070

AS PER THE ALERT INITIATED ON 9TH FEB - WE ARE RISTRICTING ACCESS ONLY FOR PREMIUM MEMBERS

Saturday, February 9, 2013

VISITORS ALERT

ACCESS FOR VISITORS TO THE WEBSITE WILL BE RESTRICTED ONLY TO PREMIUM MEMBERS & REGISTERED USERS - PLZ DO CONTACT US @ trendtraders3333@gmail.com for further assistance

COPPER NYMEX ALL TGT HIT @ 3.536 , DAYS LOW 3.538

$CRUDE HAS POTENTIAL TO TEST $94 FROM HERE ON , LTP - 93.05 , AGAIN ITS A SELL 94 - 94.05 FOR TGT 91.80/91.30/90.80

$WTIC TGT HIT @ 93.78 - 93.05 , DAYS LOW 92.67

EUR/USD TGT HIT @ 1.3176 - DAYS LOW 1.3168

SELL MCX GOLD @ 29596 FOR TGT 29406 , LRP - 29590

GOLD ONCE AGAIN FAILED TO CLEAR 1574 BUT FACED RESIS - HENCE GOLD IS AGAIN A SELL @ 1570 FR TGT 1548/1542.80 , LTP - 1570 , SL - ABVE 1588

TESTED THE BEST SELL LEVEL & BAM BAM >> $EURUSD PAIR BEST SELL LEVEL FOR THE WEEK @ 1.3402 - 1.3438 FOR DOWNSIDE TGT 1.3226/1.3176

$DXY FIRE WORK IGNITED CHALLENGING 80.90 - ITS A FIRE BALL >> 81.65 - 84.48 - 86.06 MAY BE A PACE SET TO "88.08 / 88.88" ; $USDJPY SET @ 99.45 - RETRACING THE "123" MARK

vow vow - $DXY CHALLENGES THE RESIS 80.90 - LOOKS LIKE A BREAK OUT - INVERSE PATTERN TO $GOLD & $SILVER SETS THE PACE FOR A QUICKER 26 - 25.02 , $1479

Silver motion is set for 25.02/24.10 and mcx heading towards 48048 & 44044 - intact !!!

ADD - ADD - ADD #COPPER - #MCX - #NYMEX SELL POSITIONS - FOR A GAP DWN TGT $3.558 & 429

MCX SILVER - COPPER - CRUDE OIL UPDATE : 20 FEB 2013

SILVER AFTER MAKING A LOW 54210 - NEXT RESIS & BEST SELL LEVEL IS @ 54618 - 54870 DOWNSIDE TGT @ 53802 - 53550

LTP - 54372

CRUDE OIL INTRA DAY - DOWNSIDE TGT BELOW 5265 IS CAPPED @ 5236 - 5226 , LTP - 5268 ; STRONG RESIS @ 5274

LTP - 5266

COPPER DOWNSIDE TGT CAPPED @ 431.15 - 429.60 , LTP - 434.60

SELL #MCX #CRUDE OIL @ 5285 FOR TGT 5115 , LTP - 5285 , SL - ABVE 5345

#MCX #SILVER UPDATE : RESISTANCE FOR THE DAY IS @ 55445-55798 HOWEVER DOWNSIDE TGT IS CAPPED @ 54299/53946 , LTP - 55065

$NYMEX $COPPER HAS VIOLATED 3.662 - SELL IT @ 3.646 & ON RISES FOR TGT 3.588 - 3.536 - 3.490

MULTI BAGGER CALL - SELL #COPPER @ OR ABVE 438 - 440.80 WITH A STOP ABVE 442 TGT 389 , LTP - 438

#MCX #COPPER UPDATE : 19 FEB 2013

#MCX #COPPER HAS VIOLATED THE CHANNEL "438" ONCE AGAIN - THIS IS NOT A GOOD SIGN AS WORLD INDICES HAVE NOT YET STARTED TO COME UNDER TREMENDOUS SELLING PRESSURE AS OF NOW EVEN THOUGH BULLISH SENTIMENTS ARE DIMINISHING .

ONCE WORLD INDICES MANAGES TO CORRECT THEN COPPER IS VULNERABLE FOR 388 - 382 LEVELS WHICH CAN BE CALLED AS "GAP FILLING" OR TERM IT AS "SHAKING THE WEAKER HANDS" AFTER MAKING THEM A TECHNICAL BUY LAST WEEK @ 440 LEVELS.

LTP - 437.90

#MCX GOLD IS A SELL B/W 30103 - 30148 FOR TGT 29958/29912 , SL - ABVE 30180 , LTP - 30065

US Cotton No.2 Futures - May 13 (CTK3) LOOKS SUPER STRONG - SUPP @ 82.06 & THE BULLS ARE IN CHARGE EYEING - TARGET MARK - 87.84/90.25 IN NEAR TERM , LTP - 83.85

US Corn Futures - Mar 13 (ZCH3) - RISK APPETITE TRADER'S CALL - DROUGHT A FINISHED SAGA ?

BUY @ 696 WITH A STOP BELOW 682 FOR POSITIONAL TGT 746/752

LTP - 698.12

CBOE VIX Futures Mar 13 - Target 17.80/18.50 ahead - 15.54 is the resistance & hurdle , ltp - 14.38

EUR/USD - Euro US Dollar : 18 FEB 2013

$EURUSD PAIR BEST SELL LEVEL FOR THE WEEK @ 1.3402 - 1.3438 FOR DOWNSIDE TGT 1.3226/1.3176 ; HOWEVER IF 1.3482 IS VIOLATED THEN REVERSAL UPSIDE TGT IS @ 1.3602/1.365

LTP - 1.3350

TREND : FIRM BEARISH

US 30 YR T-Bond Futures - Mar 13 (USH3) IS A BUY @ 143 - 143.30 FOR POSITIONAL UPSIDE TGT 144.55/144.95 , LTP - 143.44

$CRUDE OIL - $WTIC - TREND & TRADING LEVELS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD - 18 FEB 2013

$CRUDE OIL - $WTIC

BEST BUY & SUPP @ 96  ACTUAL RESIS & BEST SHORT LEVEL @ 96.90 A BREAK ABOVE 97.80 UPSIDE TGT IS @ 99.28/100.02 ; HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW  95.10 DOWNSIDE TGT INTACT @ 93.78/93.05

LTP -96.50

TREND : DAILY - FIRM BEARISH

WEEKLY - Trend : Firm bearish - Possible sharp reversal towards 99.25 to 100.01 after making a low of

 93.78 / .38 / .05

STRATEGY : ITS A EARLY WEEK @ 96.80 SELL FOR TGT 94.38 - 93.78 - ONCE TGT IS ACHIEVED WE WOULD UPDATE THE NEXT MOVE BASED ON REAL TIME TREND

US COFFEE TREND & TRADING LEVELS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD : 18 FEB 2013

BEST BUY & SUPP @ 139 (CURRENT RESIS) ACTUAL RESIS & BEST SHORT LEVEL @ 139.95 A BREAK ABOVE 141 UPSIDE TGT IS @ 144.25/144.60 ; HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW 138 DOWNSIDE TGT INTACT @ 134.35/133 

LTP - 138.5

TREND : DAILY - FIRM BEARISH 

                    WEEKLY -  BULLISH REVERSAL WITH BEARISH STREAKS

STRATEGY : SELL IN THE EARLY WEEK @ 139 - 139.50 FOR TGT 134.30 ; AGAIN REBUY @ 133.30 WITH A STRICT STOPS @ 126.90 FOR WEEKLY TGT 144 & NEAR TERM TARGET 168

PREMIUM MEMBERS ALERT

THE WEEK 18 FEB 2013 WILL BE  INTERESTING AS COMMODITIES MAY GIVE A STILL CLEAR PICTURE OF THE TREND & LEVELS AHEAD - UPDATES FOR 18 FEB 2013 WILL BE SENT TO YOUR REGISTERED EMAIL ID & WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE ON THE WEBSITE OR GROUP WALL "MARKET MOVERS", SO KINDLY CHECK YOUR MAIL & SPAM BOX FOR THE SAME

COMMODITIES - BULLION - ENERGY - GRAINS - TREASURY BONDS - METALS

$WTIC - CRUDE OIL TRADING STRATEGY

CRUDE OIL IS A MOMENTUM BUY @ 95.45 FOR TGT 96 WITH A STOP @ 95.20 & AGAIN ITS A SELL @ 96 - 96.60 FR TGT 94.38

LTP - 95.48

BUY MCX COPPER @ 446 - 446.70 FOR TGT 449 , LTP - 447.6 , DL - BELOW 445.20

SELL $NYMEX $WTIC @ 97.52 FOR TGT 96.52 , STOP LOSS @ 97.85 , LTP - 97.50 $CRUDEOIL

$EURUSD BEST SELL @ 1.3402 DOWNSIDE TGT 1.3262 - 1.3228 , SL -1.3422 , LTP - 1.3333

$DXY CURRENT SUPP @ 80.50 TARGETING UPSIDE MARK 80.92/81.06 LTP - 80.58 STRONG BULLISH

US DOLLAR INDEX UPDATE : 14 FEB 2013

BEST BUY & SUPP @ 80.0 - 80.34  UPSIDE TGT FOR THE WEEK CAPPED @ 80.80/81.08 ; A CRACK BELOW 79.88 DOWNSIDE TGT IS @ 78.74/78.45

 LTP - 80.42

TREND : FIRM BULLISH

#Apple Inc ($AAPL)

SELL @ 470 WITH A STOP LOSS @ 485 POSITIONAL TGT 365

LTP - 469.80

NYMEX GOLD IS A SELL BETWEEN 1649.25 - 1656 WITH A STOP ABVE 1660 FOR TGT 1644 - 1635 - 1632 - 1612 , LTP - 1649.5

SELL MCX GOLD @ 30585 FOR TGT 30558 - 30475 - 30448 , LTP - 30578 , SL - ABVE 30626

$USDBRL HAS POTENTIAL TO TEST 2.0145 IN THE DAYS AHEAD , WHILE 1.9686 ACTS AS A STRONG SUPPORT

 

USD/BRL - US Dollar Brazil Real

BUY - $USDBRL BEST BUY & STRONG SUPP @ 1.9686 UPSIDE TGT 1.9798 , LTP - 1.9724

SELL MCX CRUDE OIL @ 5222 FOR POSITIONAL TGT 5112 - 5088 - 5065 , STOP LOSS ABVE 5265 ; LTP - 5222

MCX CRUDE & NYMEX CRUDE OIL REVISED BUY UPDATE TGT ACHIEVED @ 5176 & 96.72

SELL $WTIC @ 96.86 WITH A STOP ABVE 97.50 FOR TGT 94.48/93.38 ; LTP - 96.82

BUY MCX CRUDE OIL @ 5140 - 5147 FOR TGT 5170/5176 , LTP - 5151 , SL - BELOW 5130

BUY US COFFEE @ 140.45 FOR TGT 143 - 144.75 ; SL - 139.50 ; VIOLATION OF SL -139.50 REVERSAL DOWNSIDE TGT IS @ 136.15/134.15 , LTP - 140.47

CRUDE UPDATE : 11 FEB 2013

BUY CALL STOP LOSS TRIGGERED @ 95.22

RETAKE CRUDE BUY POSITIONS @ 95 FOR TGT 95.55/96.26/96.50 ; SL - 94.50

ONCE CRUDE MANAGES TO CLEAR 95.56 IT WILL SPIKE TOWARDS 96.50

LTP - 95.50

$AUDUSD UPDATE : 11 FEB 2013

$AUDUSD buy call stop loss triggered @ 1.0268 - and made a low of 1.0263 & now trading @ 1.0272 ;

 Traders can retake buy positions @ 1.0272 for tgt 1.0301/1.0348/1.0363

ltp - 1.0272

$forex $fx $currency $AUD

BUY CRUDE OIL @ 95.72 FOR TGT 96.72 , LTP - 95.72 , SL - 95.22

S&P 500 UPDATE : 11 FEB 2013

BEST BUY & SUPP @ 1500 ACTUAL RESIS & BEST SHORT LEVEL @ 1505.40 A BREAK ABOVE 1512 UPSIDE TGT IS @ 1523.80/1529.60 , HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW 1494.20 DOWNSIDE TGT IS @ 1481.20/1475.50

LTP - 1513.35

SOYABEANS UPDATE : 11 FEB 2013

SELL US SOYABEANS @ 1468 & AVERAGE IF GET 1478 FOR TGT 1436/1426

SL - 1490

LTP -1449

VISITORS ALERT

ACCESS FOR VISITORS TO THE WEBSITE WILL BE RESTRICTED ONLY TO PREMIUM MEMBERS & REGISTERED USERS - PLZ DO CONTACT US @ trendtraders3333@gmail.com for further assistance

HAS THE GOLD BULL'S FINISHED FEEDING ON - ?

HAS THE GOLD BULL'S FINISHED FEEDING ON  - ?

The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but market mood always reverts to the mean ---

Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout --- 

IS IT TIME TO SHAKE THE WEAKER HANDS ?  IF YES THEN TILL WHERE ? FEW TECH ANALYSIS BELIEVE WE FIND SUPPORT @ 1645 - WE CAN HEAR THE CRY 1630 - 1635 BY Elliotists - and GANN admirers - bla bla bla -- and the final cry we could hear is 1625 ?
MARKETS ARE ALWAYS  KNOWN TO AGAINST THE CROWD EXPECTATION & THAT IS A NATURAL PHENOMENA APPLIED BY MARKETS & THIS TIME SHALL WE ALL TRADER'S & ANALYSTS - ADVISERS BE TAKEN FOR A SURPRISE NUMBER RIDE 1612 - 1588 FROM NO WHERE ?

 1612 - 1588 ??

LTP - 1670 - WE REMAIN A SELL FROM 1688 FOR THE TGT 1588

ABOVE 58198 SILVER WILL TEST 58374 & BELOW 58028 DOWNSIDE CAPPED @ 57626, LTP - 58188

SELL MCX CRUDE OIL @ OR ABVE 5136 FOR TGT 5116 , SL - 5146 , LTP - 5137

LIVE ACCOUNT TRADING ALERT OF POSITIONS - BOUGHT @ 93.52 * 5 LOTS - LIMIT PLACED TO ADD @ 93

TAKE PROFITS PLACED 2 LOTS @ 94 - ANOTHER 2 @ 94.24 & 1 @ 95.01

"$USDJPY" - A TREND REVERSAL SAGA ? Is it BIG BOYS AMBUSH STRATEGY ? IS THE JOURNEY TOWARDS 99.45 MARK ?

TRADING STRATEGY

$USDJPY STRONG SUPP IS @ 92.99 - HEADING TOWARDS 94.0/95.02 , VIOLATION OF 92.90 WE SEE IMMEDIATE DIP TILL 91.36 ; ONCE AGAIN SUPP HOLDS @ 90.96

REVERSAL STRATEGY 

A CRACK BELOW 90.30 - PANIC SELL OFF HITTING 86.30 MARK & SETTING THE  PACE FOR GAP DOWN TILL 83.0

"83" IS THE MULTI BAGGER MARK SOONER THAN LATTER WE HIT THAT MARK

EURUSD --- ALMOST HIT THE EXPECTED TGT - 1.3438 - DAYS LOW - 1.3458 & BOUNCED TILL LTP - 1.3590

Trend Trader

EURUSD PAIR OVERVIEW & NEAR TERM OUTLOOK : 01 FEB 2013

EUR/USD MOVING - MOVING & MOVING >> So the Million Dollar question is where will the rally End ? Or still we got lot more room for upside ...

Here we made a review of the short term trend - based on 3months calculation - that is 1 october 2012 to 31 dec 2012

THE BEST BUY & SUPP @ 1.3060 & UPSIDE TGT IS @ 1.3554/1.3707 ; HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW 1.2884 DOWNSIDE TGT @ 1.2415/1.2262

TODAY WE MADE A HIGH OF 1.3711

SO WHAT'S NEXT - AS PER THE CALCULATION IF THE PAIR IS FOLLOWING THE SAME PATTERN - LEVELS THEN WE CAN ASSUME THAT WE HAVE TOPPED --- HOWEVER IF IT HAS TOPPED THEN WHERE DO WE SEE THE PROFIT BOOKING FALL OR GAP FILLING OR TECHNICAL RETRACEMENT

HERE WE CALCULATE THE MONTHLY PATTERN 1JAN2013 WE HAVE MADE A LOW OF 1.2999 & TODAYS HIGH 1.3711 THE RETRACEMNT TGT WILL BE 1.3438 AND A CRACK BELOW 1.3065 DOWNSIDE TGT INTACT @ 1.2727/1.2625/1.2558

LTP - 1.3662

 Saturday at 12:42am

MCX GOLD 05 APRIL 2013 - HAS POTENTIAL TO TREST 31800 LEVEL AHEAD - WHICH CAN ALSO BE TERMED AS GAP FILLING , LTP - 30795

mcx silver intra day best buy & supp @ 58378 - 58445 upside tgt 58648/58775 , ltp - 58488

US Soybeans Futures - Mar 13 (ZSH3) : WEEKLY TRADING LEVELS - 05 FEB 2013

BEST BUY & SUPP @ 1455 ACTUAL RESIS & BEST SELL LEVEL @ 1466.70 (CURRENT SUPPORT) A BREAK ABOVE 1478.40 UPSIDE TGT IS @ 1506/1518 , HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW 1444 DOWNSIDE TGT IS @ 1415/1403

LTP - 1488.38

S&P 500 WEEKLY TRADING LEVELS - 04 FEB 2013

BEST BUY & SUPP @ 1476 ACTUAL RESISTANCE & BEST SHORT LEVEL @ 1490.50 (CURRENT SUPP) A BREAK ABOVE 1506 UPSIDE TGT IS @ 1538/1553 ; HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW 1462 DOWNSIDE TGT IS @ 1427.30/1412.40

LTP - 1497

STRATEGY : SELL EARLY WEEK @ 1498 FOR TGT 1490 - 1478 WITH A STOP LOSS 1506

ALERT - REVISED - GOLD MADE A LOW OF 30486 - FROM PREVIOUS SESSION LOW 30515 ; HENCE WE CANNOT EXPECT IT TO TEST 30790 - RATHER SELL @ 30745 TGT 30665

MCX GOLD HAS POTENTIAL TO TEST 30790 WHERE ONE CAN TAKE SELL POSITIONS FOR 50 POINTS PROFIT

Sell nymex copper @ 3.782 for TGT 3.706 , sl - abve 3.802 Ltp - 3.782

COPPER SELL CALL IS ACTIVE - MCX TRADER'S CAN BUILD AGGRESSIVE SHORT POSITIONS FOR SAME DOWNSIDE TGT LTP - 444.05

GOLD BUY CALL - REVISED BOOK LOSS ALERT @ 30470 ACTED AS SUPP BY GOLD MAKING A LOW OF 30487 & NOW TRADING @ 30590 - CALL ACTIVE FOR THE SAME UPSIDE TGT

MCX CRUDE OIL - 1ST SUPP FOR THE DAY IS @ 5155 , LTP - 5168

GOLD BUY CALL - STOP LOSS VIOLATED @ 30522 , BOOKJ LOSS ONLY BELOW 30470 - UPSIDE TGT ACTIVE

BUY MCX SILVER IF GET 58109 FOR TGT 58502 , LTP - 58230 , SL - BELOW 57880

MCX GOLD - TRADER'S CALL

BUY MCX GOLD 05 APRIL 2013 @ 30562 FOR TGT 30682

SL - BELOW 30522

LTP - 30565

MCX COPPER - TRADER'S CALL

SELL COPPER @ 443.70 FOR TGT 441.20

SL - ABVE 444.90

LTP  - 443.70

US DOLLAR INDEX - Trend & Trading levels for the week : 04 FEB 2013

BEST BUY & SUPP @ 79 ACTUAL RESISTANCE & BEST SELL LEVEL @ 79.58 A BREAK ABVE 79.88 UPSIDE TGT IS @ 80.39/80.64 HOWEVER A CRACK BELOW 78.72 DOWNSIDE TGT IS @ 78.52/78.28

LTP - 79.22

TREND : 5 HOURS FIRM BULLISH

DAILY - WEEKLY  : BOTTOMING OUT- BULLISH

The art of contrary thinking - Article of the week

The art of contrary thinking 

 
"Contrary” is used to denote “opposite,” or thinking opposite from the consensus view. This is not to mean telling investors to simply take an opposite view

“The contrary theory is a way of thinking, but let’s not overweigh it. It is more of an antidote to general forecasting than a system for forecasting. It is a thinking tool, not a crystal ball.”

Contrary refers to this way of thinking as a theory, probably because there had yet been little research on the relationship between human behavior and investing. The contrary way of looking at markets is the process of questioning the general opinions we hear coming from investment experts, the media, associates, friends, and family. Being contrary should cause investors to ask questions such as:

Why might the consensus opinion be wrong?

What vital issue is being ignored by markets?

Can conditions get much better or much worse?

What is already reflected in current market prices?

How is what is happening today working to change the current trend?

“Human behavior is fully as important as, if not more important than, statistical behavior.”

The average investor may not realize that a large factor in the price level and direction of markets is a function of investor sentiment. This makes sense since prices are determined by people’s beliefs about the markets and its components, such as individual stocks. It’s impossible to know what percentage of price levels and trends is a function of human psychology, but it is likely a substantial amount.

The meaning of word “art” is to say that the contrary way of thinking is not science, although many of the concepts outlined in theory are based upon human psychology.

“The ‘crowd’ is most enthusiastic and optimistic when it should be cautious and prudent; and is most fearful when it should be bold. The ‘crowd’ has always been found to be wrong when it counted most to be right.”

Why it is so important to be aware of what investors are thinking? In the investing world, people’s sentiment about a market is a direct reflection of the action they have already taken in their portfolios. The more people you hear or see who are bullish or bearish on a market, the closer we are to the maximum number of people having already taken the action that is reflected in that sentiment. Therefore, the point of maximum bullishness in a market reflects that just about everyone who could buy has already bought .. markets are always VULNERABLE for a SHAKE OUT .

The reason - if everyone has already bought, the market is unlikely to move much higher, and is likely to reverse direction. Therefore, these points of maximum euphoria or fearfulness are great times to take a position contrary to the sentiment of most investors.

Generally the traders thinking is like ,

“Well, isn’t there a seller for every buyer?

So, how could there be any time when most of the people are in or out of the market?”

The point we fail to remember is that public opinion in a speculative market is measured in dollars, not in population. One person controlling one million dollars has double the weight of five hundred people with one thousand dollars each. This is why the great body of opinion appears to be bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom. The very fact that they are long at the top shows that they have been supplied with stock from some source.”

There are many ways to gauge investor sentiment. The weekly issue of Barrons contains polls showing the percentage of bulls and bears among individuals and investment professionals. Watching business news programs will give listeners a general idea as to whether the consensus opinion is positive, neutral, or negative. The front pages of business publications and newspapers are a good source. When a particular market is front-page news, especially if the headline print size is large, it is many times an indication of overall sentiment. An amazingly good indicator of sentiment is “water cooler” talk. If you hear average people consistently talking at work or in a social setting about a market you have valuable information about what is the average person’s view.

Probably the best indicator of market sentiment is your own personal feelings. If you find yourself euphoric about your portfolio or scared to death, it’s a good bet that everyone else is feeling the same way. Investment professionals are just as susceptible to these feelings as individual investors, but the successful ones recognize that their feelings are a contrary indicator of what direction a market may take next.

So, assuming that you want to make a significant asset allocation move,

why not simply wait until a time of maximum bullishness to sell, or maximum bearishness to buy? That’s a great idea! Unfortunately, it’s not so easy to spot these moments. In addition, it’s very difficult to take the appropriate action at these times. Again, from The Art of Contrary Thinking:

We are unconsciously influenced by what is now taking place. If a boom exists, the bullish and optimistic arguments are the most popular and “acceptable.” If a slump prevails, pessimism and discouragement are contagious

People are gregarious, and intolerant and fearful of solitude. They are more sensitive to the voice of the herd (i.e., the crowd) than to any other influence. Their relations with others are dependent upon being recognized as a member of the herd. Instinctively, they follow the impulses of the herd.

A crowd thinks with its heart. A crowd never reasons, but follows its emotions; it accepts without proof what is “suggested” or “asserted.”

It takes us average humans a considerable amount of time to shift our viewpoints once we have established a given mental outlook. That is, if we have accepted a trend as moving in one direction, we are not inclined to change our outlook until well after the trend turns.

In other words, our whole psychological makeup flies in the face of being able to act contrary to the consensus opinion.

“The public is right during the trends, but wrong at both ends.”

“Frequently, opinions on a given situation will be so one-sided that the contrary opinion is obvious.

However, it may be some weeks, or months, before the trend of the situation alters sufficiently to make the contrary conclusion the correct one.”

A market’s momentum may continue to carry prices in same direction as most people expect for a period of time, creating doubt in the mind of the contrarian. It’s easy to tell when there is a lot of bullishness or bearishness, but picking the peak of that sentiment is almost impossible (unless you are very lucky), and being patient enough to benefit is emotionally difficult. To benefit from being contrary takes great patience. To be successful, an investor must be able to take a position at odds with the vastly held beliefs of the crowd, and sit with that position while the market goes in the wrong direction for an undetermined and painful amount of time.

In spite of these difficulties, there is value in contrary thinking. Asking what may be wrong with the consensus view can lead to profitable investment ideas.

Target achieved

TREND TRADERS: MCX CRUDE IS A SELL @ 5206 SL ABVE 5228 TGT 5152 LTP - 5204

SELL NYMEX/COMEX GOLD @ 1674 FOR TGT 1652/1648 , STOP LOSS @ 1684 , LTP - 1673.45

HIGH RISK APPETITE TRADERS CAN TAKE A BUY CRUDE @ 5188 FR TGT 5240 , SL - 5188 , LTP - 5190

COPPER SHORT SELLERS WILL BE SQUEEZED

GOLD IS A SELL @ 30600 - 30646 STOP LOSS ABVE 30726 TGT 30446/30385 , LTP - 30602

CRUDE BULL EXHAUST RALLY CAN BE WITNESSED TILL 5262 LEVELS , LTP - 5204 , SHORT POSITIONS EXIT ALERT INITIATED @ 5146

CRUDE BULL EXHAUST RALLY CAN BE WITNESSED TILL 5262 LEVELS