Disclaimer: Ours is an advisory role. The final decision and consequences based on our information is solely yours. Moreover, in keeping with regulatory guidelines, we do not guarantee any returns on investments. Prospective investors and others are cautioned forward-looking statements/predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

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Monday, March 29, 2010

DID NICKEL ADVISORY HIT THE MARK ??

"ALERT NICKEL TRADERS" ARTICLE POSTED ON OUR BLOG ON 17 MARCH 2010...>>
                        "WE ADVICE U TO STAY CAUTIOUS IN TAKING A SELL CALL ON NICKEL BASED ON THE MEDIA & ANALYSTS VIEW..ITS A "TRAP" CALL..BASED ON THE PRICE TREND & VOLATILITY NICKEL LOOKS BULLISH ABOVE 956& HS GOT POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 1102/1148 IN TE DAYS AHEAD....
                                                        CMP-1006(when Initiated))"
                     AS EXPECTED  NICKEL 31MAR2010 CONTRACT HAS ACHIEVED OUR GIVEN 1 TGT 1102...DAYS HIGH - 1110(ALL TIME HIGH OF 31MAR CONTRACT)...OUR 2 ND TGT - 1148....
                                            CMP-1074 

NIFTY SHORT TERM STRATERGY 1 TARGET ACHIEVED

DEAR TRADERS AS PER OUR NIFTY SHORT TERM  STRATERGY(1-3)MONTHS...INITIATED ON JAN 29 2010 @ 4885 HAS ALMOST ACHIEVED OUR 1ST TGT 5345..DAYS HIGH-5344....
                            WE HAD ALSO ASSUMED THT ONCE NIFTY TOUCH 5345 WE MIGHT WITNESS  SOME PROFIT BOOKING & AGAIN A BOUNCE BACK TILL 5425....
                            NIFTY FUT  IS CURRENTLY TRADING @ 5316 AFTER MAKING A HIGH 5344...

Thursday, March 25, 2010

MCX ALERT - GOLD TARGET ACHIEVED

OUR GOLD 05APR EXPIRY SELL CALL INITIATED @ 16450 HAS ACHIEVED OUR GVN 2ND TGT 16240...DAYS LOW 16242..BOOK FULL PROFITS...

MCX ALERT - GOLD TARGET ACHIEVED

OUR GOLD INTRADAY/POSITIONAL SELL CALL INITIATED @ 16450 HAS ACHIEVED OUR GIVEN 1 TGT  16280 & ALMOST ACHIEVED THE 2 TGT 16240...DAYS LOW 16252...
                        OUR GOLD SHORT TERM SELL CALL INITIATED @ 16760 HAS ALMOST ACHIEVED TE GIVEN 1ST TGT 16237..DAYS LOW 16252.... THE 2 ND ACCORDING TO SHORT TERM TRADING STRATERGY IS  15850..
                                   CMP-16290

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

NIFTY FUT MAR EXPIRY INTRADAY/POSITIONAL LEVEL

NIFTY FUT MAR EXPIRY INTRADAY/POSITIONAL LEVEL: BEST BUY 5212 RESISTNCE @ 5223.4 ABVE THT TGT 5260/5272;BELOW 5206 SELL IT FR TGT 5175/5164.......

Monday, March 22, 2010

MCX COPPER ALERT: COPPER 30APR2010 EXPIRY SHORT TERM TRADING STRATERGY(1-4WEEKS)

COPPER IS TRADING IN THE RANGE 336.6.RESISTENCE IS BETWEEN 342-347.6..ABVE 347.6 BUY IT FOR TGT 364.7/369.9...IF CRACKS BELOW 342 SELL IT FOR TARGET 325.3/319.90
                                  CMP-336.65
.ADVICE : wait for the copper  prices to reach 342 & start selling fr target 320..Keep a stop loss @ 348 if breaks & moves above that then reverse your trade for target  364.7/369.9

MCX GOLD INTRADAY/POSITIONAL CALL

SELL GOLD 05APR2010EXPIRY BETWEEN 16410-16450 STOP LOSS 16480 TGT 16280/16240;ABOVE 16480 BUY FR TGT 16580.....

NIFTY SPOT TRADING LEVELS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD - 22/03/2010

NIFTY BEST BUY LEVEL BETWEEN 5166-5206 ...TARGET  5334/5374.. STOP LOSS - 5152;
BELOW 5152 SELL IT FOR TARGET 5037/4997...
                                  CMP-5262.8
ADVICE : ITS BETTER NOT TO TAKE A CALL OR POSITION IN THE MARKET UNTILL NIFTY SPOT CRACKS TILL 5206..ANY DIP FROM 5206 WAIT FOR 5166-5170 LEVELS WHERE ONE CAN ADD & AVERAGE THEIR LONG POSITIONS.....
****TRADERS DO KEEP IN YOUR MIND ABOUT OUR  NIFTY SHORT TERM TRADING STRATERGY(1-3months)...IN WHICH WE HAVE ASSUMED THE TARGET 5345(profit booking)..& again a bounce back till 5425.... dont ever get carried away by analysts view and become GREEDY waiting for the target 5500/5600 ... 

Friday, March 19, 2010

MCX ALERT - NICKEL TRADERS - INTRADAY TRADING RANGE

MCX TRADERS ALERT : A DAY AGO WE ADVICED OUR TRADERS TO STAY CAUTIOUS ON NICKEL SELL WHICH WAS BEEN ADVICED BY MOST OF THE ANALYSTS ON MEDIA AND ALSO BY FEW BROKING HOUSES ...
THE RESULT :ITS MOVIN AS EXPECTED & TREND-BULLISH;
                         TODAY IT MADE A HIGH OF 1039.8 & NOW TRADING IN THE RANGE 1031.6....
INTRADAY TRADING RANGE NICKEL 19-03-2010 : BEST BUY 1033(CURRENT RESISTNCE) ..ACTUAL  RESISTANCE @ 1035.35 ABOVE THT TGT IS 1044.2/1047.05...BELOW 1028(STOP LOSS) ...SELL IT FOR TGT 1023.6/1020.8

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

MCX SILVER INTRADAY TRADING LEVEL - 17/03/2010

MCX SILVER INTRADAY LEVEL : SILVER (05MAY2010) BEST BUY 27087 RESISTANCE @ 27152 ABOVE THT TGT 27363/27428..BELOW 27065(SL) SELL IT FR TGT 26876...
                                    CMP - 27128

NICKEL INTRADAY TRADING LEVEL:

NICKEL (31MAR2010) BEST BUY 1004 RESISTANCE @ 1006.65 ABVE THT TGT 1015/1017.75..BELOW 1002 (SL) SELL FR TGT 992..
                    CMP-1005.6

MCX ALERT - NICKEL TRADERS !!

WE ADVICE U TO STAY CAUTIOUS IN TAKING A SELL CALL ON NICKEL BASED ON THE MEDIA & ANALYSTS VIEW..ITS A "TRAP" CALL..BASED ON THE PRICE TREND & VOLATILITY NICKEL LOOKS BULLISH ABOVE 956 & HS GOT POTENTIAL TO TOUCH 1102/1148 IN TE DAYS AHEAD....
                                                        CMP-1006

NIFTY SPOT TRADING LEVELS FOR 17 MARCH

BEST BUY 5158 RESISTNCE @ 5177..A MOVE ABVE TGT 5241/5260.
STOP LOSS 5142..BELOW THT SELL FR TGT 5094/5074..
                                        CMP - 5198.10
****ENTRY ACCORDING TO BEST BUY PRICE  SHOULD BE TAKEN ONCE THE GIVEN SCRIP REACH OUR GIVEN LEVELS FROM THE  PREVIOUS DAY CLOSE OR CMP......

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

NIFTY SPOT TRADING LEVELS FOR THE WEEK - TARGET ACHIEVED

NIFTY TARGET ACHIEVED :NIFTY SPOT WEEKLY TRADING STRATERGY INITIATED 1 DAY AGO @ 
5116 HAS ACHIEVED OUR GIVEN BOTH TARGET 5183.5/5198.9..DAYS HIGH-5209.25

DAILY OIL PRICE ANALYSIS 16 MARCH 2010

Daily oil prices have continued to struggle to break above the $82.50 per barrel price point with Friday’s candle once again signalling weakness which was duly validated yesterday’s, as crude oil closed the trading session below the 9 and 14 day moving averages once again. Given the recent trend of sideways price action in the current channel between $70 per barrel and $82.50 per barrel there are two scenarios that may unfold.  The first of these is that we see a continuation of the reversal of Friday with oil prices declining as occurred in early January to re-test support in the $70 per barrel price region providing us with longer term swing trading opportunities.  The second scenario only occurs should we see a break and hold above $82.50 which would then signal some sustained momentum to the upside, supported by the deep and wide price platform below.  Meanwhile OPEC members have signalled their satisfaction that oil prices are trading at around the $80 price handle as this allows most of their members to meet their budgetary requirements.  However, this unified front does hide some underlying tensions as not all OPEC members appear to be adhering to their production quotas and trying to increase their market share.  Overall the WTI contract ended the session at $79.89 having traded between a high of $81.31 and low of $79.13.

Monday, March 15, 2010

NIFTY SPOT TRADING LEVELS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD 15/03/2010

NIFTY SPOT WEEKLY LEVEL: BEST BUY 5117 RESISTANCE @ 5132.8 ABOVE THAT 
TARGET 5183.3/5198.90;BELOW 5102 SELL IT FR TARGET 5066.8/5052...


                                        CMP-5116

NIFTY FUTURE ALERT

NIFTY ALERT : DEAR TRADERS COVER ALL UR SHORT POSITIONS IN NIFTY BETWEEN TE LEVELS 5108-5090.A SHARP PULL BACK MIGHT B WITNESSED DURING  LATER SESSION.........

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Trend Analysis using Open Interest and Volume

Open Interest (also known as Open Contracts or Open Commitments) refers to the number of active or open contracts for any given security. It applies to the futures and options markets but not to stocks.
In the futures market it refers to the total number of contracts long or short in a delivery month or market that has been entered into and not yet liquidated by an offsetting transaction or fulfilled by delivery. Each open transaction has a buyer and a seller, but for calculation of open interest, only one side of the contract is counted.
The open-interest position that is reported each day for a given market shows the increase or decrease in the number of contracts for that day in the form of a positive or negative number.
It is one of the foremost tools for confirming trends and forecasting trend reversals in the futures market.
- Open interest rising along with prices is a bullish indicator that an uptrend is in progress and is likely to be sustained. It shows that new money is entering the market.
- Falling open interest and rising prices is a bearish indicator, suggesting that the rise is being caused by short sellers covering their positions. The upmove is unlikely to be sustained because new buyers are not entering the market.
- Open interest in a sideways market can suggest a breakout in either direction.
- A rise in open interest in a falling market suggests that a downtrend is in place. New money is entering the market through short sellers.
- When both open interest and prices are falling, this suggests that the longs are closing out their positions, indicating a trend reversal and an upward movement in price.
- Static open interest along with rising or falling prices suggests a possible market top or bottom and trend reversal.
Volume is often used along with open interest. Volume refers to the number of contracts that have to have been traded within a given session. Volume precedes price. The higher the volume traded, the more likely a trend will continue. Rising open interest confirms that new money is supporting the prevailing trend.
Using volume and open interest together:
Price
Open Interest
Volume
Forecast
Rising
Up
Up
Bullish (trend confirmation)
Rising
Down
Down
Bearish (possible trend reversal)
Falling
Up
Up
Bearish (trend confirmation)
Falling
Down
Down
Bullish (possible trend reversal)

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Time Tested Classic Trading Rules for the Modern Trader to Follow


Keep records of your trading results.
Keep a positive attitude, no matter how much you lose.
Plan your trades. Trade your plan.
Don’t take the market home.
Continually set higher trading goals.
Successful traders have a well-scheduled planned time for studying the markets.
Successful traders isolate themselves from the opinions of others.
Continually strive for patience, perseverance, determination, and rational action.
Never get into the market because you are anxious because of waiting.
Avoid getting in or out of the market too often.
Losses make the trader studious – not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.
The most difficult task in speculation is not prediction but self-control. Successful trading is difficult and frustrating. You are the most important element in the equation for success.
Always discipline yourself by following a pre-determined set of rules.
Remember that a bear market will give back in one month what a bull market has taken three months to build.
Don’t ever allow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if the market moves against you 20% from your peak profit point.
Expect and accept losses gracefully. Those who brood over losses always miss the next opportunity, which more than likely will be profitable.
Split your profits right down the middle and never risk more than 50% of them again in the market.
The key to successful trading is knowing yourself and your stress point.
The difference between winners and losers isn’t so much native ability as it is discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.
Speech may be silver but silence is golden. Traders with the golden touch do not talk about their success.
Dream big dreams and think tall. Very few people set goals too high. A man becomes what he thinks about all day long.
Accept failure as a step towards victory.
Have you taken a loss? Forget it quickly. Have you taken a profit? Forget it even quicker! Don’t let ego and greed inhibit clear thinking and hard work.
One cannot do anything about yesterday. When one door closes, another door opens. The greater opportunity always lies through the open door.
The deepest secret for the trader is to subordinate his will to the will of the market. The market is truth as it reflects all forces that bear upon it. As long as he recognizes this he is safe. When he ignores this, he is lost and doomed.
It’s much easier to put on a trade than to take it off.
If a market doesn’t do what you think it should do, get out.
Beware of large positions that can control your emotions. Don’t be overly aggressive with the market. Treat it gently by allowing your equity to grow steadily rather than in bursts.
Never add to a losing position.
Beware of trying to pick tops or bottoms.
You must believe in yourself and your judgement if you expect to make a living at this game.
In a narrow market there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be – up or down.
A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.
Never volunteer advice and never brag of your winnings.
Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.
It is better to be more interested in the market’s reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.
If you don’t know who you are, the markets are an expensive place to find out.
In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word – Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don’t torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won’t continue long. If it does, console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early reserved gains that you would have otherwise lost.
When the ship starts to sink, don’t pray – jump!
Lose your opinion – not your money.
Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.

20 POINTS STRATERGY TO BECOME A SUCCESSFULL TRADER

1. Don't dig yourself into a hole early in the day or in your career.
Be willing to observe the market and make an informed decision. Missed money is better than lost money, so wait patiently for the best opportunities to arrive.

2. Trade with a blend of anticipation and confirmation.
Balancing these two will mean that you adopt a system of "if this happens, I will do that." Wait for your pitch!

3. Beware of your trading process following a winning streak.
After a win streak, be extra disciplined! Many will make money in the market, but discipline is required to KEEP it. Stay on your guard at all times!

4. When you lose, don't lose the lesson!
Forget the names but remember the events. Those who don't remember the past are doomed to repeat it. Make mistakes with composure and character, without blaming others, and don't dwell on mistakes.

5. When in doubt, get out.
Scrutinize your positions at all times, each day, and you will not be left holding a stock without reason. Be willing to change direction at any time, because your flexibility as an individual investor is a big advantage which should be embraced!

6.You are too greedy.
Thinking about trading profits instead of how you could better execute your plan is an obvious sign of greed.

7. Evaluate your results at least monthly.
Monitor your P&L, your win/loss ratio, and the relationship between your biggest wins and worst losses. Reviewing these results helps you continually improve your understanding of the markets and yourself.

8. Finally (perhaps most important), always be patient.
Long-term patience will keep your confidence and optimism high, and short-term patience will help you wait for the best trades. Success doesn't come easy, and rarely are fortunes made overnight. Be willing to pay your dues and put in the work in orWhen all you have is the "OPPORTUNITY" to trade, sometimes traders find themselves clicking into trades just to be involved with the markets.

9.Do you find yourself making acceptances for your trades that are not in your plan? What causes this? Is it a need for action? Is it a need to be right? Is it a fear of missed opportunity? One of the reasons many traders struggle - over trading or forcing the trade.

10.The most common misconception among new traders is that they have to constantly be in the market.

11.Remember it's not the quantity of trades you take, but the quality of your trades you take.

12.By being in the market all the time the trader does not give him or herself a chance to pause and will eventually lose because of the unfavorable market conditions.

13.Don't force trades just because you feel you need to be in the market.

14.Trading out of boredom is the worst reason to be in the market. You have to be PATIENT!

15.Patience is one of the keys to becoming successful trader.

16.Patience will keep you from overtrading.

17.Patience will give you enough time to observe and look for a potential setup for the next trade.

18.Trading is all about probabilities. You must make many trades to get the law of averages to work in your favor. As long as the setups are solid, and you're using sound money management and risk control, you'll make enough trades to come out ahead.

19.You blame others when the full responsibility is yours.
Accepting responsibility is the fulcrum point for succeeding in anything, especially trading. Doing something about it is the criterion. Execution is the reward, not the money. Money is the by-product of executing to plan. Do not blame the broker for a bad fill, when it was you who hesitated. This is just one example, but we are all aware of many others.

20.Losing traders often take themselves quite seriously and seldom find humor in market analysis or the trading environment. Successful traders are often the funniest and most imaginative people you will ever meet. They take joy in trading and are the first to laugh or relate a funny story. They take trading seriously, but they are always the first to laugh at themselves.

CONCLUSION:
Its no wonder that one of the first things psychiatrists test for when treating a patient is whether or not the patient has any sense of humor about his affliction. The more serious the tone of the individual, the more likely that insanity has set in.
                                                                                                                      Abhishek .M.R

Friday, March 12, 2010

NIFTY TO FACE RESISTANCE @ 5150-5180

Nifty to face resistance at 5150-5180;
Nifty is likely to find stiff resistance in the 5150-5180 zone and some profit-booking is likely to emerge soon, taking it lower to 5030 and then possibly 4950 level in the next few days.

It is likely to find stiff resistance in the 5150-5180 zone and some profit-booking is likely to emerge soon, taking it lower to 5030 and then possibly 4950 level in the next few days. Only a sustained move above 5205 will indicate further strength in the index.

The cost of carry for Nifty March contracts surged yesterday and commanded a premium of more than 13 points towards the end of the session. The OI for the contract fell by a little more than 9 lakh shares, indicating that the late pull-back was more due to short covering. Reliance Industries, GAIL, Axis Bank and NTPC rose with a fall in OI, suggesting that the late spurt was due to short-covering and may not last for long. 

Thursday, March 11, 2010

CHINA wants to LORD over GOLD and FOREX markets

Gold is making news in China these days. China’s aggressive attempt to build up gold reserves has been the talk of the bullion world in the last few months. Especially, ever since India bought 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last year, there has been speculation that the Chinese central bank would be the next to purchase the remaining IMF gold.

Now that the IMF has announced the sale of 191 tonnes of gold, there has been lots of rumours and speculation running thick around the world that China is all set to buy gold from IMF. China, in fact, is moving very cleverly. The country’s strategy is not just in buying more gold and mopping up the yellow metal reserves. China also wants to ensure that the country defeats the US dollar dominance and the Chinese currency—Yuan—emerges as the next reserve currency of the world.

In order to rule the world in gold and currency markets, China is planning to allow private enterprises to buy gold from the international market. If such an approval comes from the Chinese government, China is going to play the most pivotal role in the global gold and bullion market.

Now, the question every economist is asking is whether China would beat the US in lording over gold reserves and the currency reserves of the world. May be, it is a possibility, if the current Chinese moves are any indication.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

FIIs bullish on Indian stock mkts


Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued their buying spree on Tuesday, the seventh consecutive session in which they were net buyers. FIIs have been net buyers every single day after the announcement of the Budget picking up stocks worth Rs 8,473 crore in six sessions. On Tuesday, they were buyers to the tune of Rs 2,173 crore, according to data put out by the exchanges. That is among the highest amounts purchased in a single day in recent times. The 30-share Sensex (^BSESN : 17136.21 +83.67) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex rose 623 points, or 3.8%, since the Budget day.
While FIIs were net sellers in the secondary market in January and February, they have been buying shares in the primary market by subscribing to follow-on issues and IPOs. Since January, they have bought stocks worth Rs 8,355 crore worth of shares since the start of January. FII continued their buying spree on Tuesday as they purchased Rs 2,173 crore worth of equities, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold shares worth Rs 171 crore, according to BSE's provisional estimates.
According to Hitesh Agarwal, head-research, Angel Broking, the FIIs booked substantial profits in 2008 and the early part of 2009 because of the global financial crisis. "Fundamentally, there was no reason for them to exit the Indian equities. That money is now coming back."
FIIs are one of the largest investors in the Indian markets and exhibit strong influence on the index movements. And they have been net buyers in all three quarters of this fiscal. In the last three quarters of fiscal 2010, they have purchased shares worth Rs 90,934 crore.
The Budget, which spelled a clear roadmap for fiscal consolidation and disinvestment of public sector companies, has added to their upbeat outlook Except 2008, the FIIs have been net buyers in Indian equities in the last five calendar years.
In 2009, they purchased Rs 84,262 worth of equities while in 2008, thanks to global recession FIIs pulled out Rs 53,796 crore from the Indian market.

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